Monday, February 16, 2015

Ahead or Behind?

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 148.5 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 17.95, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 40)
SB: 99 BB
BB: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 9.38, PFR: 6.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
UTG: 113 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 41)
UTG+1: 90 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
MP: 113 BB (VPIP: 2.50, PFR: 2.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 41)
Hero (MP+1): 167.5 BB
MP+2: 86 BB (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 8.82, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
CO: 213.5 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 13.89, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 39)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6h 3s
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2 BB, fold, BTN calls 2 BB, SB calls 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop : (8 BB, 4 players) Js Qc 7s
SB checks, BB bets 4 BB, fold, BTN calls 4 BB, SB calls 4 BB

Turn : (20 BB, 3 players) Kd
SB checks, BB bets 7 BB, BTN raises to 29 BB, fold, BB calls 22 BB

River : (78 BB, 2 players) 6c
BB bets 67.5 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 67.5 BB

BB shows As Ts (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 73%, Flop 85%, Turn 97%)

BTN shows 9h Td (Straight, King High)
(Pre 27%, Flop 15%, Turn 3%)

BB wins 205.5 BB

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How do you know if you are ahead or behind in this hand? Both winner (SB) and BTN are on a draw. What clues do you look for whether to continue or not? Or is this a "cooler" situation you just can't walk away from?

Looking at their actions, you can tell BB played the cards well. She let him believe that he (BTN) was ahead on the turn and simply called his bet. On the river, going all in, even I will see that as someone with a set trying to get max value on a wet board.

I don't think there's anyway BTN could have avoided this--what do you think?