Thursday, August 9, 2012

TPTK facing turn donk

Villain is 20/16/0 in +60 hands... WSF is 63, W$D is 100 and WTSD 33.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL ZOOM - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4:

BTN: $4.93
SB: $4.95
BB: $6.84
Hero (UTG): $5.07
UTG+1: $5.32
UTG+2: $2.93
MP: $10.62
MP+1: $9.35
CO: $8.37

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has Kc Ah

Hero raises to $0.12, fold, UTG+2 calls $0.12, fold, MP+1 calls $0.12, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.43, 3 players) 9s 4s Kd
Hero bets $0.28, fold, MP+1 calls $0.28

Turn: ($0.99, 2 players) 6h
Hero checks, MP+1 bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70

River: ($2.39, 2 players) 3d
Hero checks, MP+1 bets $1.30,

Hero--bet, call or fold?

Let's see. What are villain's range in this case? With less than 500 hand history on villain, I wouldn't rely on my HUD to tell me how she is as a player. So I am going to rely on villain's actions to tell me what her hands could be.

Preflop - Villain limps in after I raised from early position. Villain probably has suited connectors, low to medium pairs, ace high flush draw.

Flop - I make TPTK, I cbet. Villain calls. He has at least a pair or nursing a draw.

Turn - To find out what villain has, I decide to check. Villain makes a good-sized bet, 3/4 pot. I now look at my HUD. Villain will not go to showdown unless she has something.

One thing is for sure, I am not going to put my stack in the middle for TPTK. Never, ever... unless I have a good read on villain with more than 1k hands. I call villain's bet and see what the river has in store for us.

River - 3 of diamonds. I don't think that helped her, and mine as well. But wait--villain bets HALF POT.

Villain is not sure about what she's got. I raised preflop. What is going on in her head to make her bet half pot? From experience, weak bets like these on the river vs a player who's checking behind only wants to scare you off if you had nothing... because she probably has nothing.

That's how play is on the microstakes. At these levels, not a lot of players understand meta-game.

If I were in her shoes and wanted to scare off my opponent, I'd make a sizeable bet, 2/3 pot at least. This gives the impression that, "I have a big hand, therefore, I want a big pot." Even if she wins this hand, the next time we are in this same situation and I make a bet, she will call.

I don't think villain has something, and that my TPTK will stand a chance on the showdown, so I call his/her bet.

Villain shows JTd.