Monday, August 6, 2012

Fold Straight Nuts

From 2p2...

Villain is 8/6/3 in 210 hands.

MP: $5.13
MP+1: $3.07
LP: $2.11
CO: $4.99
BTN: $1.60
SB: $1.98
Hero (BB): $2.40
UTG: $2.32
UTG+1: $0.90

SB posts SB $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has A K

fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, fold, MP+1 calls $0.02, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.12, UTG+1 calls $0.10, MP+1 calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.37, 3 players) 2 T J
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP+1 bets $0.18, Hero calls $0.18, fold

Turn: ($0.73, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, MP+1 bets $0.45, Hero raises to $1.00, MP+1 calls $0.55

River: ($2.73, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, MP+1 bets $1.30, fold

. . . .

210 hands is not enough, but we can work with this information. What is villain's range? More importantly, what is your image on the table--how do other players see you?

Flop - Villain donks on you, half pot. In my experience, donk bets like this, it is because villain landed a pair, or makes a big hand and is baiting the aggressor to reraise to make the pot big.

More importantly, how often does he/she donk on the flop?

Turn - you made nuts. Why did you not go all in? Even so, villain bet half pot. I don't think villain has a set. Maybe Ace-high, or has two pair, at best. If villain made low set, he wouldn't bet small on the turn.

Since you were the aggressor preflop, the other players will put you on AK if you made the pot big on the turn. By not betting enough, you are only giving villain good pot odds to call your bet. If I was villain and had a set, I'd call hoping to make full house.

River - villain still bets half pot on that scare card. If villain had the boat, or was trying to represent having full house, a half pot bet gives you good odds to call. I would have gone all in on the turn. Even so, seeing villain's half pot bet on the river on a scare card, I'd call, not fold.

Remember--Small hand, small pot. Big hand, big pot.