Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Three of a kind vs turn aggression

Villian is 20/0/0,5 agg over 10 hands only but he seems like a losing player on ptr.

CO: $61.64 (123.3 bb)
SB: $41.46 (82.9 bb)
BB: $50 (100 bb)
UTG: $18.45 (36.9 bb)
UTG+1: $129.76 (259.5 bb)
UTG+2: $44.97 (89.9 bb)
MP1: $63.52 (127 bb)
MP2: $111.14 (222.3 bb)
Hero (MP3): $50 (100 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9 9
5 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, CO folds, SB calls $1.25, BB folds
Flop: ($3.50) 9 6 J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.70, SB calls $2.70
Turn: ($8.90) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6.30, SB raises to $26.50, Hero ?????

Can we ever fold here? What hands could he have? his play looks like a straight to me.

This is what I call an "oh shit" situation.

If I have less than 100 hand history on villain, I always assume that they have the goods.

At this spot, I could be drawing dead, but I could be wrong. There's a good chance that villain has the goods here. Or I hope with all my heart that I am wrong.

If I were you, I will invest on my meta-game by reraising villain, even if it means going all-in knowing I'm beat. Consider it as part of doing business. Almost everyone who plays online poker these days have poker tracking software. Everyone wants to see how you are going to respond to aggression on the turn.

The regs will take notice of how you played this big pot. Who knows, you might find yourself with an opportunity to use this in the future?