Wednesday, April 11, 2012

AA on wet board, villain went all-in

Villain is 17/9/2.3 3betSB 3% over large sample size. He sees me as a nit.

Hero antes $0.10
SB antes $0.10
BB antes $0.10

Dealt to Hero A A
Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls $1.25, fold
FLOP ($3.80) 3 9 6
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB calls $3
TURN ($9.80) 3 9 6 5
SB checks, Hero checks
RIVER ($9.80) 3 9 6 5 3

SB bets $5.77, Hero ?

Assuming you have more than 100 hand history on villain, a 17/9/3 tells me villain is tight aggressive. But these stats are not enough. It doesn't give me more information as to how aggressive he/she is postflop.

Some of the stats that I have on my pokertracker4 HUD are the following:
  • check raise
  • donk bet
  • Turn Af
  • WTSD, W$SF, W$SD

You making a big preflop raise tells everyone that you have pocket rockets--no doubt. If I were to call your preflop raise, I need hands that will beat yours on the flop, or at least get a flush draw.

Since villain is still there on the flop, I'd start implementing pot control, which you did. You checked on the turn.

River wasn't good for you. Villain is still there with a wet board. It is possible that villain made the flush on the turn, but probably did not have the nuts.

One other scenario is that villain made a set on the flop, got scared of the flush card on the turn, then made full house on the river, hence going all-in.

Beyond flop, I would never give up my stack with TPTK. It's best to fold at this point, wait for a better spot.