Wednesday, December 29, 2010

how to earn $7 per day grinding

I got this email from a friend today:

...By the way Jim, conservatively, what stats should I have for me to earn USD7 per day initially grinding at the microstakes playing 4 hours per day?

My reply: $7 per day is almost two buy-ins (max buy in with pokerstars at 2NL is $5)= 350 big blinds.

It depends on how you play. What is your winrate at the moment (xbb/100)? Assume the following:
- you choose to play full ring cash games at 2NL (i haven't played tourneys for a long time).
- your winrate is 1bb/100, which is common for tight aggressives.
- that you are playing 100 hands per hour x 4 hours is 400 hands per day.
- to net $7 per day, your winrate needs to be 350bb/400 hands per day = 0.875bb/100

Based on these assumptions, I think it is possible to earn $7per day net playing tag or lag. TAG meaning your vpip/pfr is 15/10-ish minimum. This means you are raising from all pocket pairs down to broadway (KQJT) suited, depending on position.

If you play 5NL or 10NL, $7 per day is easily attainable based on the assumptions mentioned above.

Better than looking at vpip/pfr to guarantee that $7 per day, make it a point that your W$SF is above 35 and your W$SD is over 50 but WTSD is below 35. These stats will show that:
- you are playing aggressive enough and winning small pots without going to showdown;
- that you are able to see flops at your price;
- and that you are going to showdown with only BIG hands and winning BIG pots at the same time.

Small hand, small pot. Big hand, big pot.

$7 per day, in a month's time is $210. Isn't that more than minimum wage by philippine standards?

This is why I think starting a staking business in manila may well be a very profitable business. You train people to play certain hands exclusively preflop. They get three of a kind or higher on the flop, then they bet/raise such that they be all in by the river. Anything less, go for cheap showdown. With that strategy, any player can make 2bb/100. You can teach this even to high school dropouts in a week of training. After training, you closely monitor each player for about two weeks to make sure they play within the specified method.

You start them off at 2NL pay them training salary (which is less than minimum wage) for the next six months. Whoever is in the black at the end of 30 days moves up a stake. Those who don't gets cut. After six months, you give them a choice between raising their salary to minimum wage, or 60/40 profit sharing. In one year, you'd have a stable of 2bb/100 players playing midstakes.

(i forgot to mention the VIP bonuses and rakeback you'd be earning along the way.)

The downside to this is that you will need bigger capital outlay for office space and computers. Compare this to finding horses on 2p2--you just give them the stake, they take care of their own pc. If (our friends at swifttrade) were into poker instead of trading US stocks back then, they'd probably be rich(er) by now. They had the office space, the equipment, and more importantly, the capital to make it work.

(hmmm, I think I should post this on my blog. The majority of visits on my blog come from the philippines.)

Thanks for bringing this up.

- jim